Reading Boring PDFs For Science

Robert

Robert

For various reasons, the government has decided to discourage people from understanding the effectiveness of the Covid vaccines as of August, 2021. Instead, the health bureaucracies have taken a PR campaign approach by continually pushing vaccines as a panacea, blaming dissenters for the crisis. As a result, the public is more confused and fearful than ever. Let’s look at some of these studies, and what we can reasonably surmise from reliable sources.

Initial Vaccine Effectiveness Studies

I sat down and read the Johnson & Johnson vaccine study one weekend. This study was performed in December, 2020, at the University of Washington. It started with a group of around 40,000 people and ended up tracking just over a hundred from two groups: those given the vaccine; and those given a placebo. The study then tracked the individuals 28 days later and used an RT-PCR test to check for the presence of the virus. This was performed as a double-blind study.

According to this study, people in the control group were three times more likely to test positive, 28 days after injection, compared to people given the vaccine. This is, somewhat confusingly, how the researchers derive the 66% “effectiveness” rating promoted by the company.

Note a couple of important aspects of the J&J study:

  • There was never any assessment of severity of symptoms or how many cases required hospitalization. The only criterion for the test was the result of an RT-PCR test, a molecular “rapid” test.
  • The study ended after 28 days. As far as I’m aware, no one tracked the participants 2, 3, 6 months later to see if they later became ill.
  • The study was conducted in the Seattle, WA metro area in December, 2020. I am not aware of an equivalent study performed anywhere else.

Similar studies were performed for the other vaccines made available in the U.S. I haven’t read these in detail, but they were conducted in similar fashion, at around the same time, in late 2020.

If I can make my own extemporaneous observation about this study and the others that I skimmed (Pfizer and Moderna), it seems clear that the studies were evaluating the vaccines as a drug to prevent the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. I note this because the emphasis on negative RT-PCR indicates that the intention was to produce a drug that prevents infection and reduces the ability of the virus to spread.

Let’s Journey Back To December 2020

Way back in December, 2020, the Covid vaccines were touted as the clear solution to ending the pandemic and restrictions. Ezekiel Emanuel, an advisor to the current president, made the following statement on April 7, 2020:

“Realistically, COVID-19 will be here for the next 18 months or more. We will not be able to return to normalcy until we find a vaccine or effective medications. I know that’s dreadful news to hear. How are people supposed to find work if this goes on in some form for a year and a half? Is all that economic pain worth trying to stop COVID-19? The truth is we have no choice. 

If we prematurely end that physical distancing and the other measures keeping it at bay, deaths could skyrocket into the hundreds of thousands if not a million. We cannot return to normal until there’s a vaccine. Conferences, concerts, sporting events, religious services, dinner in a restaurant, none of that will resume until we find a vaccine, a treatment, or a cure.”

Ezekiel Emanuel, April 6, 2020 [MSNBC transcript]

Then along came the Covid vaccines. Vaccination became a requirement for front-line workers including fire-fighters, EMS, nurses, police, and more. We were told that people who were vaccinated had immunity to the virus, that they could not get sick with Covid, and that they could not pass the virus to others. Thus the pandemic would end via “herd immunity”, because anyone who was vaccinated would no longer be a host for the virus.

I was a bit skeptical in December, 2020. Back then, I wrote a Facebook post asking the question: do these vaccines really prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2? I had heard that they did not confer sterilizing immunity, as the most successful vaccines (smallpox and polio) did. Will these new vaccines work to prevent the spread of disease? My reasons for raising this question in December, 2020 were the following:

  1. The CEO of BioNTech, the German firm that partnered to produce the Pfizer mRNA vaccine, stated in an interview that SARS-CoV-2 was likely to become an endemic virus — meaning, it would be with us forever, but would likely mutate into a relatively harmless form.
  2. The World Health Organization’s chief scientist made statements to the equivalent, stating the SARS-CoV-2’s properties suggested that a mass vaccination campaign would look much more like influenza vaccination and much less like the polio or smallpox vaccination campaigns.

This has been a common assumption from health experts. Most believe that Covid is on track to become a contagious but low virulence disease, much like influenza.

As in my previous sojourns down the rabbit hole of skepticism during the Covid era, my post was met with a fair bit of hostility (honestly, that’s putting it lightly) from those who claimed that my questions were spreading “misinformation” and distrust in the vaccination campaign and thus may prolong the crisis.

Six months later, it appears that the public has been so indoctrinated into vaccine madness, that they have now turned on anyone daring to question whether the vaccines work.

Shifting The Blame

Beginning in July, 2021, we have learned that the vaccines are significantly less effective than promised. Since early August, the CDC has begun ordering vaccinated people to wear masks again in public, despite assuring them only a few short months earlier that masks were no longer necessary for those who got vaccinated. According to the CEO of BioNTech, Ugur Sahin:

“The vaccine protection against the new variant is considerably lower.”

Dr. Ugur Sahin, CEO of BioNTech

The first country to notice this was Israel. Israel is an example of a country that is very heavily vaccinated, among the most vaccinated in the world. The Israeli health ministry found in July, 2021 that Pfizer’s vaccine is only 39% effective against the current form of the virus. A study performed in the U.S. more recently has come to similar conclusions about Pfizer’s vaccine.

In order to break the bad news to the public, government health agencies have begun suggesting the following:

  1. The Covid mutant variants are somehow caused by unvaccinated people. This makes little sense, as it would seem more reasonable that a viral mutation would occur when faced with immunity. In other words, why would the virus have to evolve into a more contagious form if it were still infecting millions of unvaccinated people?
  2. Even though the drugs in question are shown to be far less effective than promised, and certainly do NOT prevent the spread of the virus, somehow unvaccinated people are responsible for new cases. (Even though a large number of new Covid cases are occurring among the vaccinated.)

CDC has also moved the focus to “serious illness” requiring hospitalization. Supposedly, the vaccines still prevent “severe disease.” This is moving the goal-posts, as the intent was to prevent spread, not to protect against “sever illness.” But let’s supposed it is true, that the vaccine prevent one from getting seriously ill. In stating this, isn’t the CDC admitting that the vaccines aren’t effective in preventing non-severe cases of Covid? Given that the majority of those who get Covid have relatively mild symptoms along the lines of the flu or a cold anyway, this suggests that vaccination will not do anything to stop the spread of Covid.

We also now know Pfizer’s vaccine effectiveness wears off rather quickly “[The] efficacy of the vaccine protecting against symptomatic disease dropped every two months, to 84% after six months from a peak of 96% within two months of vaccination.” It was estimated to lose about 6% on average every month, implying that to provide protection, the vaccines would have to be re-administered often. According to the CEO of BioNTech in late July, 2021, “[t]he vaccine protection against the new variant is considerably lower.”

Viral load in the sinuses of a vaccinated person is also no different from the viral load of an unvaccinated person. “The findings reveal that vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals exhibit similar viral loads following delta infection and that vaccine breakthrough cases have the potential to transmit infection to others.” Translation? You are as likely to get Covid from a vaccinated person with a “breakthrough infection” as you are to get it from an unvaccinated person. There is therefore no logical reason to feel safer around vaccinated people, and to fear being around unvaccinated people.

So it is clear that the Covid vaccines as of August, 2021 are not working as promised. The point of waiting for the vaccines was the stop the spread of SAR-CoV-2. Maybe these drugs do prevent “severe illness” – but that wasn’t what was promised to the public. The plan was to “lock down” society until a vaccine came along that would stop the spread of the virus. This information clearly shows that the vaccines we waited for do not prevent the spread of Covid, and so they cannot end pandemic measures.

Appeal To Authority

I have not relied on any conspiracy theories or unsubstantiated information to reach these conclusion. I have simply read some boring PDFs and articles and put together what seems to be the only logical conclusion that a reasonable person could reach about what they mean: that the vaccines do not prevent one from getting or spreading Covid. It may reduce the odds of infection, but likely at a rate of less than 50%, about on par with the effectiveness of the flu vaccine.

Is this what we were promised? Less than six months ago, the EUA Covid vaccines were being promoted as “miracle drugs.” Yet the world looks exactly as it did one year ago in August, 2020 — mask-wearing is promoted, schools are closed or operating with pandemic measures in the classroom, fear and uncertainty abound. We’ve now spend hundreds of billions of dollars of taxpayer money and haven’t moved an inch.

To point this out for some reason brands one as an “anti-vaxxer.” Such is the state of society in 2021. Rationality has become banished in the name of blind trust in the government health bureaucrats that have failed for the last 18 months to control the disease. That same government now wants more money, more power, and more control to keep trying to solve the problem that they have utterly failed to fix for almost two years now. The health bureaucracies’ extraordinary failure has impacted the lives of hundreds of millions of people, and they deserve to be heavily criticized.

I feel confident that history will remember this vaccination campaign as a major disaster. The CDC and other government institutions and figureheads have blown their credibility in the eyes of the public by encouraging mindless compliance over rational judgement, and allowing partisan politics to muddle the message. During these times, organizations like the CDC should be neutral sources of truth and pillars of sanity. Yet even despite the CDC completely changing its guidance within a few short months, you will never see an official admit that they made a mistake — or that the situation is too complex to give authoritative guidance. For any rational skeptic, this means that the health bureaucracies will be even less trusted in the future, since whatever they say may be completely wrong by their own admission.

Appeal to authority is never the way to gain trust. People and institutions that demand total obedience without question are always doing so at the expense of trust. As trust is lost, it becomes even harder for these institutions to get public buy-in on any future control measures.

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